Sunday, February 7, 2010

Super Bowl XLIV Preview

New Orleans vs. Indianapolis (6:25, CBS)
The game that all football fans have wanted all season is finally here. Both the Saints and Colts had chances of being undefeated but lost along the way, for the Colts it was controversial with benching of starters.
The Saints looked dominant against the Cardinals but in the NFC Championship, mistakes by Brett Favre and fumbles by Adrian Peterson let the Saints capitalize on those mistakes and send them to Miami.
Peyton Manning and the Colts had a similar run to Miami by beating the Ravens easily in the divisional round but not finding their rhythm until the second half against the Jets in the championship round with Manning leading the Colts to their second Super Bowl in four years.
Here is my preview broken down by position:
Quarterback:
Drew Brees vs. Peyton Manning
Manning and Brees have arguably been the two most dominant quarterbacks this season and with a win, both quarterbacks will have different legacies cemented.
Manning with a win will become closer to gaining the unanimous title of best quarterback ever. The way he has led his team this season with the departure of Marvin Harrison and injury to Anthony Gonzalez at receiver becoming no big deal at all with Manning hitting no-names guys like Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. Manning will no doubt be the key to why the Colts win this game.
For Brees, if he wins, he will not only be a legend in New Orleans(even more than he is now) and could pass Peyton's dad, Archie in popularity in New Orleans. Unlike Manning, Brees has had a running game to rely on this year and if he fails to get going early in the game he can turn to the run.
Advantage: Manning
The only reason Peyton gets the nod is because he will be the reason the Colts suceed or fail, he is way more important to his team than Brees is.

Running Back
Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush/Mike Bell vs. Joseph Addai/Donald Brown
The Colts' running game has become even more non-existent than it was in the regular season, their main rusher, Joseph Addai has barely over 100 yards on the ground in two playoff games in comparison to Reggie Bush having that many yards rushing and receiving in one game against the Cardinals. The Saints run game can set up playaction and the Colts' only use the run to keep defenses honest every once and a while with a stretch play.
Advantage: Saints
The New Orleans' running backs will have a bigger impact in any form of the game.

Wide Receiver:
Reggie Wayne/Pierre Garcon/Austin Collie vs. Marques Colston/Robert Meachem/Devery Henderson
The Colts' duo of Garcon and Collie have come out of nowhere to give Peyton Manning two reliable targets to replace Harrison and Gonzalez. Reggie Wayne has been overshadowed all season by these two but still remains the main focus of opposing secondaries.
The Saints' top receivers also have a breakout star in Meachem along with Colston, who came out of nowhere as a rookie from Hofstra in 2006. Henderson as been quiet this season but still looms as a deep play threat.
Advantage: Colts
When Peyton Manning is your quarterback and you can catch 75% of your passes, you will win the game.

Offensive Line:
The Colts' experience up front begins with center Jeff Saturday and expands as you move along the line with tackle Ryan Diem and guard Ryan Lilja. These three along with tackle Charlie Johnson and guard Kyle DeVan have stopped opposing pass rushes all season and will do no different in Miami tonight. The Saints' pass rush is not the best this O-line has seen and it will need an extraordinary performance by Gregg Williams' defense to stop this O-line.
The New Orleans line is a little less experienced and teams have taken advantage of that but in the postseason they have stepped up allowing only one sack and giving Brees time to throw six scores and no picks. The challenge tonight will be to stop Dwight Freeney, even if he is at 70-80%, and Robert Mathis from the defensive end position. If Jon Stinchcomb and Jermon Bushrod can stop the Colts' ends from getting around the corner, look for Brees to have a ton of time to throw the ball tonight.
Advantage: Colts
Although the Saints have gotten better, the Colts' experience in big games and efficiency is too much for the Saints to compare.

Defensive Line:
The Colts' line includes the most watched ankle since Tom Brady's two years. Dwight Freeney is likely to play after not practicing all week and will team up with Robert Mathis at end to bring the rush off the corner. If Freeney is not ready to play, which is highly unlikely, Mathis will have to step up to the task as well as backup Raheem Brock.
The Saints have no injury problems on their defensive line and will have to get pressure on Manning like they did against Brett Favre and Kurt Warner in the NFC playoffs. The numbers may be deceiving with only one sack, by tackle Sedrick Ellis, but the Saints have been putting opposing quarterback on the ground and will have to find some way to hit Manning tonight to cause turnovers.
Advantage: Colts
If Freeney plays, the Colts will have the better pass rush and should get to the Brees, just as the Saints will try to do with Manning.

Linebacker:
Both linebacking corps feature each team's leading tackler in the postseason (Scott Shanle for the Saints and Gary Brackett for Indy) and will play a big part in the game tonight. New Orleans' veteran group comprised of Shanle and Scott Fujita on the outside and Jonathan Vilma in the middle need to wreak havoc in the middle of the field. It is a given that the Colts will not run that much, but when they do, Vilma and company will need to stop the run for short gains and losses. Covering Dallas Clark will be the biggest task facing the New Orleans linebackers and if Clark is contained, Manning loses his favorite target.
The Colts' also have an experienced group but they are not as talented as Vilma, Shanle, and Fujita. The Colts' group of Philip Wheeler, Brackett, and Clint Session will be a factor stopping the Saints' running backs and in the pass rush but are not as effective as the Saints' linebackers.
Advantage: Saints
Vilma, Shanle, and Fujita will be a bigger factor in the game than Indy's group of linebackers.

Secondary:
The Saints' veteran group led by Darren Sharper shut down the Vikings and forced turnovers, one being Tracy Porter's pick of Brett Favre in the fourth quarter, sending the game to overtime. In order to shut down the Colts' passing attack, Reggie Wayne will again need to be shut down by either Tracy Porter or Jabari Greer. Darren Sharper will need to be able to roam around the field and help in coverage, go for the big hit, and try and make interceptions.
For the Colts, the injury-ridden secondary has improved with the performance of young corner Jacob Lacey and veteran teammate Kelvin Hayden but they have been able to make up for the lack of coverage with the play of Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea at safety. To shut down Brees and his receivers, Colston will need to be shut down and Meachem needs to be contained that way the pressure will be put on Henderson and Lance Moore
Advantage: Saints
Not only does Darren Sharper patrol the New Orleans' secondary but the Colts have not faced a true pass-first offense in the past month and a half and there are questions if they can handle Brees' pass attack.

Special Teams:
Veteran kicker Matt Stover returns to the Super Bowl with the Colts, he went with the Ravens in 2001, and has become the reliable kicker that Adam Vinatieri was before went down for the season. Punter Pat McAfee will have the easiest job because he probably will not touch the football more than two times tonight.
The Saints' rookie, Garrett Hartley will need to come through with big kicks when needed during the game.
In the return game, only one name is worth mentioning, Reggie Bush. Bush could set the tone for the Saints just like Devin Hester did for the Bears' against the Colts in Indy's win in 2006. But the Saints should not take the Bears example and fall flat after a big return that Bush should break out at least once tonight.

Prediction:
In a game that is expected to be a shootout, I believe it will come down to the end and that both kickers will play a big part. But in the end, Peyton Manning will come out on top with another game-winning drive.
Colts 26, Saints 19

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