Thursday, October 15, 2009

NLCS Preview

As the uneventful NLDS series concluded, it gave both the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers a chance to rest up for a rematch of last year's NLCS. That is where the similarities stop. This season, the Dodgers have a more potent offense and their starting pitching has improved plus they have home-field advantage this season. The Phillies' season has been plagued by issues in the bullpen as well as in the rotation where last year's World Series MVP, Cole Hamels has had an off year.
So here it is, my preview for the 2009 NLCS:
STARTING ROTATION:
Advantage: Phillies
With the midseason additions of Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, Philadelphia gained two valuable assets to their roster. Add to that, rookie of the year candidate J.A. Happ and Hamels and the Phils have the clear advantage over L.A.'s rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Hiroki Kuroda, and Randy Wolf.
BULLPEN:
Advantage: Dodgers
The firepower that exists in the Dodgers' bullpen in one to envy. Righthanders Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Bellisario have proved that they are good set-up men to closer Jonathan Broxton, who reaches 100mph consistently. The key in this series will be the lefties in the bullpen, George Sherrill and Hong-Chih Kuo. Lefties are hitting .152 against Kuo and .128 against Sherill this season. Kuo and Sherrill's matchup against Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will be the most important in the series.
CATCHER:
Advantage: Dodgers
Russell Martin has always been one of the most underrated catchers in the National League. The effort Martin puts out during each game shows he plays every game like he means it. Martin is also a key part of the Dodgers' bottom of the lineup. Martin hit .250 with 7 HR and 53 RBI this season and is hitting .275 against lefties this season, which he will see at least two in Lee and Hamels in the series.
INFIELD:
Advantage: Phillies
The Phillies' infield can no doubt produce power but has also improved greatly on defense this season. Ryan Howard has been the bright spot. Howard has only committed 14 errors this season and his fielding percentage went up 2 points to .990. Howard's improvement complements the rest of the infield of Pedro Feliz, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley, all three of whom have stellar gloves.
In the offensive categories, the Phillies' infield is far and above much better than the Dodgers. The Phillies' starting infielders have hit 109 HR combined this year compared to the Dodgers' starting infield with 50 combined HR.
On defense and offense the Phillies are far better in the infield.
OUTFIELD:
Advantage: Dodgers
If you think off the top of your head you would think that the Phillies' outfield of Ibanez,Victorino, and Werth are better, but the Dodgers' outfield of Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier will be better in the series.
Manny has a flare for the dramatic and with home-field for the first 2 games, every at-bat for #99 will be extremely loud at Dodger Stadium, Manny feeds off of that and should give the Dodgers extra power in the series. Matt Kemp should have been an all-star this season, Kemp but up a .297 average with 26 HR, 101 RBI, and 34 stolen bases. Kemp is an all around player with speed that makes up for Manny's lack of speed in the left-center gap and he has made just 2 errors the whole season and against lefties he his hitting .362 with 8 HR and 25 RBIs. Ethier, like Manny, has a flare for the dramatic in one series at home this year, he had three-straight walk-off hits and will be a dangerous batter to the mostly right-handed Phillies bullpen. Ethier is hitting .307 at home and this season he hit for 31 HR and 106 RBI. When it comes to late-inning heroics the Dodgers can count on their outfield for the big hits.
BENCH:
Advantage: Dodgers
The Dodgers' bench is stock full of postseason veterans. With Brad Ausmus, Mark Loretta, Jim Thome, and Juan Pierre all on the bench, the Dodgers have players to count on in clutch situations. Pierre is arguably the fastest player left in the playoffs, Loretta and Ausmus are professional hitters and can give the Dodgers a boost in the late innings. And then there is Thome, the former Phillie, who is looking for another ring and he needs to come up with a big hit at least once in this series to validate the Dodgers' trade for him in August.
The Phillies' bench is full of utility players that are past their time. Miguel Cairo, Paul Bako, and Matt Stairs are all 35 or older and aren't that dependable. Eric Bruntlett is not a power hitter, all he does good is bunt. Ben Francisco is the only man on the Philly bench that has a chance to shine and make a name for himself, but that won't happen this year with the overflowing talent in the outfield.
MANAGER:
Advantage: Dodgers
Joe Torre won 4 World Series titles with the Yankees and is now on his way to win ring #1 in Los Angeles. Torre has done a brilliant job in getting his bullpen to perform for the lackluster starting rotation. He also has created a team that if one person goes down, he has someone on the bench that can produce.

PREDICTION:
The Dodgers will win the first two games and the Phils' home field in games 3,4,and 5 will give them the confidence to take two at home, but the Dodgers will pull one out in Philly and clinch in Game 6 to avenge the loss from last year and give Torre a chance to face his former team in the World Series.
DODGERS IN 6

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