Sunday, January 24, 2010

AFC Championship Preview

New York Jets @ Indianapolis (3:00, CBS)
The Jets and Colts meet for the second time this year, but this time under very different circumstances. This time, the Colts will not bench their starters and the Jets have a greater chance of making the Super Bowl coming in to the rematch than they did in Week 15. Here is the preview broken down into position battles.

Quarterback: Peyton Manning vs. Mark Sanchez
This is a no-brainer on who gets the advantage at this position. Manning is a future hall of famer who looking for his second ring and is succeeding this season with rookie receivers. Sanchez is a rookie who can not win a game with his arm.
Advantage: Colts

Running Back: Joseph Addai & Donald Brown vs. Thomas Jones & Shonn Greene
Greene has been the breakout star of the playoffs on the AFC side and has taken over for Jones as the main running option. Jones did most of his damage in the regular season and with all the focus know on Greene, he is going unnoticed.
Addai and Brown will not run the ball as well as their opponents but pose a threat in the passing game. The Colts' offense is pass happy, as it should be with Manning at the helm, but the running backs are good blockers and have good hands to contribute to the passing game.
Advantage: Jets

Wide Receiver/Tight End
The Colts have so many weapons to run around the field. Reggie Wayne has been overshadowed by the production from tight end Dallas Clark and rookie standouts Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. With Wayne visiting Revis Island this week, Clark will have to be Manning's main target across the middle and Garcon and Collie have to step out wide and as big play threats.
For the Jets, you are lucky if a casual fan can name four of their receivers. Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery are Sanchez's top two targets. Edwards, who came over from Cleveland in an early season trade, as given Sanchez a tall target to reach in red zone situations. Cotchery is reliable to catch passes of any type. Behind them, the talent level drops and the only other name worth mentioning is Brad Smith, who can be lethal if used in the Wildcat formation.
Advantage: Colts

Offensive Line
Both teams possess an experienced center, for the Colts it is Jeff Saturday and Nick Mangold for the Jets. The experience factor can only be attributed to three other players, Jets guard Alan Faneca and Colts guard Ryan Lilja and tackle Ryan Diem. Overall, both lines are set up for each team's offensive specialties. The Colts excel at pass protection and the Jets line supports the power run game.
Advantage: Tie

Defensive Line:
The 3-4 of the Jets has been effective in support of the stronger points of their defense. With the pass rush mostly coming from the outside linebackers, the task for the Jets' D-Line will be to get enough pressure on the Colts' tackles so that the linebackers will be able to blitz.
The Colts possess tons more talent with their front four. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are two of the best pass rushers in the game and they do not have to rely on the rest of their defense. Especially against a young quarterback that has never been on the stage such as a title game, Freeney and Mathis will look to take advantage of the Jets' tackles and get to Sanchez early and often.
Advantage: Colts

Linebackers:
The Colts' starters, Clint Session, Gary Brackett, and Philip Wheeler are overshadowed by the pass rushers in front of them but pose a threat to dominate the game just like Freeney or Mathis. All three are experienced and will be the key to defending the Jets' rushing attack. The Colts should play with at least seven in the box to make Sanchez throw the ball and the linebackers will have to tackle today for success.
The Jets' linebacking corps has improved all season. It all started with the offseason signing of Bart Scott, adding experience and leadership to the rest of the young players at the position. Calvin Pace, David Harris, and Brian Thomas are all experiencing the championship stage for the first time and Scott will use the experience he gained while with the Ravens to help them prepare. If one of them can cover Dallas Clark across the middle or get defelctions off of Manning, the Jets could win.
Advantage: Jets

Secondary:
There is no comparison at this position. Darrelle Revis is the best cornerback in the league and will shut down Reggie Wayne on Revis Island today. With the spotlight on Revis, both safeties, Jim Leonhard and Kerry Rhodes have been mostly unnoticed and have both come up with clutch plays in the last two games. They will both have to have the same success today.
The Colts' secondary has been plagued by injury all season and have held together. Antoine Bethea is leader at safety and luckily for young corner Jacob Lacey and veteran Kelvin Hayden, the Jets' threat at wide receiver is very limited so they can come on the blitz more than they normally would.
Advantage: Jets

Special Teams:
Both teams possess a quality kicker with experience, Matt Stover for the Colts and Jay Feely for New York, and have a solid return game. But, special teams should not have a deciding factor in the game unless it comes down to a field goal.
Advantage: Tie

Game Prediction:
Manning should have a field day picking apart the part of the Jets' secondary not named Darrelle Revis and will use Dallas Clark as his main target, like he has all season. The Jets only stand a chance if they can hold Manning to under 300 yards and completely stop the run game.
Prediction: Colts 34, Jets 20

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