Sunday, January 24, 2010

NFC Championship Preview

Minnesota @ New Orleans (6:30, FOX)
The number one and two seeds meet at the Superdome in what is expected to be, like mostly all of the NFC playoff games, a shootout. Two of the most potent offenses in the league will take to the turf of the Superdome tonight and should provide a game to remember. Here is my breakdown, position by position, of tonight's game.

Quarterback: Brett Favre vs. Drew Brees
Both Favre and Brees are two of the best in the league at their craft but there is one main intangible that Brees does not have but Favre does and that is experience. Favre has been to the NFC Championship four times in his career and Brees has not made it past the divisional round in his time in San Diego and New Orleans. Even if the Superdome crowd is behind Brees, Favre is used to crowd noise and should not have a problem dealing with the noise.
Advantage: Vikings

Running Back:
Both teams have at least two backs that can be starters on any team in the league. Minnesota's Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor have not had the success like that in past seasons because of Favre but they should not be overlooked. Peterson is due for big game and Taylor provides a formidable punch up the middle.
The Saints' run game has improved tremendously over the past month. Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas had been the main contributors to the run game until Reggie Bush exploded all over the Cardinals last week. Bush looked like he did back at USC and if he has half the game he had last week, he will cause trouble for the Vikings.
Advantage: Saints

Wide Receivers/Tight End
Both teams boast a breakout receiver this season and a veteran who can be relied on and a former Giants tight end. The Vikings' Sidney Rice has become Favre's favorite target and had a huge game last week against Dallas. Rice's importance in the game will multiply if Percy Harvin can not go due to migraine trouble today because Harvin is Favre's main third down target. Favre can also find Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe as reliable targets. Berrian's stats are down mostly due to Rice this season but can still make a big play while Shiancoe has been the go-to man for Favre in the red zone.
The Saints have Robert Meachem, who has broken out this season and has stolen the spotlight from Marques Colston and Devery Henderson. Colston is still targeted by Brees but teams now can not afford to double team him because of the threat Meachem poses. Also, Jeremy Shockey's return last week was a emotional boost to the team. Shockey has always played the game with passion and if he is able to go today, look for that emotion to flow over to the rest of the team.
Advantage: Tie

Offensive Line:
The Vikings' left side alone has more experince in the league than the Saints' line, whose only starter in the league for at least five years is Jon Stinchcomb. The Vikings left tackle Bryant McKinnie and left guard Steve Hutchinson are two of the most skilled offensive lineman in the league and have helped Favre avoid the blitz all season. The Saints' line has been consistent but the one weak point is on at left tackle with Jermon Bushrod. Teams have been targeting Bushrod for the past month and he has needed support from either left guard Carl Nicks or whoever is beside Brees in the backfield.
Advantage: Vikings

Defensive Line:
The Vikings' defensive line proved how dominant they can be against the Cowboys in the divisional round. With the focus on Jared Allen, Ray Edwards had a career day with three sacks. The ever present inside force provided by Pat and Kevin Williams is one to make any offensive line scared. Look for Allen and Edwards to take advantage of the Saints' weakness on the line in Bushrod and force the Saints to double team them.
The Saints defensive line has been consistent all season with another good season put in by Will Smith and Bobby McCray but they just do not have the star power and dominance that the Vikings possess on the defensive line.
Advantage: Vikings

Linebacker:
Just like their defensive line, the Vikings linebackers have been very impressive all season. When E.J. Henderson went down in December, experts were saying that his replacement, Jasper Brinkley, would not be able to fill the role but they were wrong and he has played good football along Chad Greenway and Ben Leber.
The Saints' linebacking corps has been anchored by veteran Jonathan Vilma. Alongside Vilma, the pair of Scotts, Fujita and Shanle have been consistent all season, like they been for their whole careers. Comparing the two groups of linebackers is too tough and they both at the same level.
Advantage: Tie

Secondary:
Minnesota's secondary has been shaken by injury all season but now that they are all healthy and ready to go at the right time in the season, they will need to shut down either Meachem or Colston or both. Cedric Griffin and Antoine Winfield are very capable of doing just that.
The Saints' secondary has been highlighted by Darren Sharper. Sharper has had a career year and will look to continue his domination against his former team. At cornerback, Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter have a big task on their hands today, especially if Harvin is healthy. Sidney Rice is on fire and needs to be stopped to give the Saints a chance to win the game defensively.
Advantage: Saints

Special Teams:
If Harvin plays for the Vikings, their return game will contain the same explosiveness that the Saints have with Reggie Bush. Both kickers, Ryan Longwell and New Orleans' Garrett Hartley possess strong legs so there is no real advantage unless Harvin does not play.
Advantage: Tie

Game Prediction:
The game will be decided by a clutch defensive performance. Who will step up to make the play could be a big name like Allen or Sharper or a lesser known player. Favre and Brees will have their typical performances and the key will be defense and the Vikings have the better defense.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Saints 16

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